And that is pretty much how Putin has intended it to happen. This letter from Donetsk accurately paints a picture of Russians being bussed in by the thousands to create a “counter revolution.”
What’s happening in Kharkiv and Donetsk now reflects someone’s strong intention to provoke and impose an illusion of a local civil conflict. The pro-Ukrainian side in Donetsk is very strong and entirely aware of the future they would lose if they join Russia. The pro-Russian side is mostly represented by aggressive thugs, “tourists” from Russia and older people who watch Russian television and do not use the Internet. Their time for dealing with the natural confusion of the moment is now being brutally stolen by this violent distraction.
Yes, the Ukraine counter revolution arrives from Russia.
This is occurring by Putin’s design. Part of his design, too, is counting on weak projection from the West, which seems to be panning out. The amount of propaganda that reasonable people identify as absolutely absurd is astounding. From the beginning, Putin brayed about how the West was fomenting, planning, and financing the uprising against the Yanukovych regime. Then, when Yanukovych was sent packing, Putin sends in thousands of troops into Crimea and thousands of Russian citizens into cities to trump up a “counter revolution.” Yet a staggering number of useful idiots don’t seem to be able to grasp the cynical irony.
Never underestimate the power of human absurdity. Anyone who actually believes and propagates the notion that the Ukrainian revolution is a Western financed usurpation by neo Nazis is, to put it as nicely as possible, a dangerous, blithering idiot. The revolution in Ukraine is as complex as any revolution in history, but at its most basic it can be described as people uprising against a government that was completely unaccountable to the people; a government that was corrupt from top to bottom, and a government by oligarchs for oligarchs in which people were nothing more than a resource to be used to further the desires of a blatant kleptocracy. Of course it was all backed and supported by Putin’s Russia.
Early on, before Yanukovych was sent running, I always felt that if he was deposed, Russia would at the least come into Crimea. I stated as much the day after he was sent running. It was obvious that Putin would make a move on Crimea. What else would you expect a former KGB official who once stated that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy in the twentieth century to do.
Every action will have a reaction. Inaction is an action which will have a reaction. You can’t just skate because you don’t get involved. Whether you like it or not, the world just doesn’t work that way.
I don’t know how this will ultimately turn out. There are so many possibilities that it is impossible to make a prediction with any seriousness. But I will state what I believe is a real possibility. When the “referendum” is carried out next week, Crimea will vote to join Russia. The actual referendum is nothing more than a formality; a dotting of an i and a crossing of a t. Putin will assure victory. That much is a certainty. It’s what happens after that one can make reasonable assumptions of possible outcomes.
When Crimea joins Russia, that could very possibly be the tipping point. There are substantial numbers of people in Crimea who absolutely do not want to be part of Russia. They will come out, Russian troops and/or Russian “supporters” will crack down. Blood will be shed. This could very well cause Ukraine’s military to at last commit itself. From this point all bets are off. Russian “tourists” in other parts of Ukrain; Odessa, Donetsk, and Kharkiv will come out in support of fellow Russians. One can easily see Putin using this as an excuse for a full scale incursion into Ukraine. Why wouldn’t he? He has not received any real threats to cause him to not consider it when weighed against his wish to reconstruct a simile of the USSR. Kind of what I’ve heard others jokingly refer to as a NewSSR. A full scale incursion into a country of 45 million people is no small matter. Ukraine will fight. Russia would probably win. A lot of people would die. Many, many people would die. All of this at the doorstep of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania; all of whom could not just sit by and not react to some degree. To what degree and exactly how, I would not venture to guess. But I do know that there is a possibility of a conflagration that history will look back on and say, “All of this could’ve been avoided had the world just stepped up and put a firm, united foot down when there was just a few thousand troops in Crimea.”
Sounds familiar, doesn’t it.