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Monday, January 26, 2009

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

I just picked up this book, and I can hardly wait to sink my teeth into it.

In The Next 100 Years, Friedman undertakes the impossible (or improbable) challenge of forecasting world events through the 21st century. Starting with the premises that “conventional political analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination” and “common sense will be wrong,” Friedman maps what he sees as the likeliest developments of the future, some intuitive, some surprising: more (but less catastrophic) wars; Russia’s re-emergence as an aggressive hegemonic power; China’s diminished influence in international affairs due to traditional social and economic imbalances; and the dawn of an American “Golden Age” in the second half of the century. Friedman is well aware that much of what he predicts will be wrong--unforeseeable events are, of course, unforeseen--but through his interpretation of geopolitics, one gets the sense that Friedman’s guess is better than most. --Jon Foro

Part of the reason that I love this stuff is that as time goes on, we’ll know just how right, or wrong, George is. Also, this is prime fertilizer for writers and story tellers.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Stimulate This

You can probably tell by the frequency of my posts that this web site is pretty high on my list of priorities. OK, some facetiousness to start the day off with.

On a more serious note, concerning this whole 800 billion dollar, soon to be a trillion dollar bailout nonsense being pimped by our soon to be President B.O. The first thing that strikes me is how much this guy is shaping up to be pretty much just like G.W.; spending money like a drunken sailor. So far, the only difference I can see coming is a shifting of elites who will get their backs scratched by the administration.

Think about it, if B.O. was really concerned about “stimulating” the economy, and he’s really open to “bold” new steps, instead of figuring out ways to spend more of my (and yours) money, how about suspending federal income tax for, say, a year.

I guarantee that would do far more to “stimulate” the economy than any amount of government programs and spending. Within a couple of weeks the Dow would be back above 11,000 thus bringing up the value of those battered retirement accounts. For most people it would be like getting an instant 15 to 28 percent raise. Imagine how much easier it would be to make that distressed mortgage payment then. Also, think of the extra money that people would have to spend in general. Spending more means higher demand for things that people buy like cars, clothes, washers, eating at restaurants, whatever. To meet the demand, there would be much hiring of workers. See how this works? The most appealing aspect of suspending federal income taxes is that it would be economically “stimulating” without the evilest of evil middlemen getting their grubby hands in the mix; the federal government.

Then, after a year or so, the federal income tax could be phased back and there would be a substantially larger tax base from which to gather government revenue.

But, the very fact that the best solution is one requiring less government is the very reason why B.O. and other government types would never allow such a thing. See, their first priority is not to you or me, but, rather, to themselves and to those whose backs require scratching and palms need padded. Also, B.O., and other government types, want to control the money. He—they—don’t want to “stimulate” the economy as much as retain and build power through “wealth redistribution”.

So, when B.O. stands at the podium and, with chin tilted upwards with that contemplative demeanor he’s developed, waxes eloquent about the dire need to take immediate and bold action to help us get through these extremely difficult times, just know that he, just like G.W., does not really mean it. You’ll know this by his proposed solutions that require more government spending, comprehensive government stimulus schemes and acquiescence of future generations at the altar of firing up the printing presses rather than doing the most effective, simple thing which is to suspend federal income taxes for a year.

Yeah, “stimulate” this.